June stock markets continue a monthly pattern of volatile up and down cycling, slowly climbing from late March lows. The month closed basically flat. Market returns are mixed, with the DOW still negative YTD while the S&P has held positive since early May. Following the strengthening economy, the Federal Reserve is allowing inflation to rise, as it has been low for so long. Inflation, measured as Consumer Price Index or CPI, is now well over 2%. The long-term average for CPI is 2.5%. The current rise is mainly due to oil prices, now in their “sweet spot” of $60-80/barrel. We are watching inflation and oil price trends for their effect on US GDP and the stock market. Meanwhile indicators continue to suggest this aging bull market is gradually coming to a peak.
July opens with beach weather. The deer have returned to the garden to munch their favorite tender shoots. So far, they don’t care for lavender or sweet peas, bee balm or poppies or honeysuckle, so some color remains for high summer. We never see them. Scampering chipmunks, squirrels, and a family of bunnies entertain endlessly. We don’t need the parsley or the pears as much as we thought we did, although a cute family of foxes…
